The Meat Trader's Journal #37: the future of meat: AI, trade shifts, and market insights you can't afford to miss!


Wednesday May 14, 2025

The 5-minute newsletter that will make you a smarter Meat Industry Insider

The Meat Trader’s Journal #37

Welcome to this week's edition

The meat industry is witnessing a technological revolution as AI transforms processing, marketing, and trade dynamics. Meanwhile, global policy shifts and market trends are reshaping the landscape for traders and producers alike.

🧮Market Intel for Traders & Brokers

📊🐷 EU Pork Market Outlook for 2025 🐷👇

🔻 Slight Production Decline: Pork production in the EU is forecasted to decrease slightly by 0.5% in 2024 and by 0.2% in 2025. 🐖 African Swine Fever continues to pose a significant risk to production stability. ⚠️

📉 High Pork Price Trend Shakes: After nearly two years of high prices, the EU pork market is showing signs of decline. Average pork prices (E grade) in July 2024 dropped to 214.8 euros per 100 kg, down from 220.9 euros the previous month and 13.9% lower than the same month last year. By the third week of August, prices further declined to 206 euros. While some fluctuation is seasonal, increased production and weak demand have accelerated this trend. 📉

🍽️ Stable Per Capita Consumption: EU pork consumption per person is expected to stabilize at 30.9 kg in 2025, despite a slight decline in 2024. 🧑‍🍳 This reflects ongoing challenges in the sector but shows signs of stabilizing consumer demand. 📉

🚢 Export Struggles Intensify: EU pork exports face tough competition, especially from Brazil and the US. With high pork prices, EU’s competitiveness in global markets has declined. 🌍 Export volumes could drop by 2.5% in 2024 and another 2.0% in 2025. Export demand from China, a critical market, has fallen sharply (-27%), adding pressure.

📈 Poland’s Production Growth: Among the 27 EU countries, Poland has shown the biggest growth in pork production, up by 9%, while production in major players like Spain has decreased slightly. 🇵🇱📊

📉 Shrinking Exports Impact Prices: EU exports have been decreasing yearly, with a 14% drop in 2022, a 20% drop in 2023, and a 3.5% decline by mid-2024. This has added to the downward pressure on prices. Although still relatively high at around 200 euros, further declines are expected as the EU struggles to compete. 🌐

💼 Imports and Trade Challenges: EU pigmeat imports rose slightly, with significant growth from Chile (+173%) due to a new trade deal. However, imports from the UK have fallen. By 2025, EU imports are expected to decrease by 2% as UK demand declines. Additionally, the EU’s self-sufficiency rate of 116% makes exports essential to market stability. 📉

🌍 Rising Trade Tensions with China: The EU’s recent decision to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has prompted China to investigate anti-dumping measures against EU pork exports from Spain and the Netherlands. Since China is the EU’s largest pork export market, these trade tensions are heightening uncertainty for EU pork. 📉

⚠️ Animal Disease Threats Add Risk: African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks in Germany and Italy pose a risk, affecting overall EU exports and increasing volatility in the market. ⛔


📰3 relevant stories in our Industry

EU's new Common Agricultural Policy reshapes meat production landscape

European Council (04/11/2024)

The EU's reformed Common Agricultural Policy for 2023-2027 introduces significant changes affecting meat producers and traders.

Key Points:

  • The new CAP emphasizes environmental sustainability, potentially impacting meat production methods and costs across the EU.
  • Enhanced support for young farmers and rural development may influence the future supply chain of meat products.
  • Stricter animal welfare standards under the new policy could affect production practices and export competitiveness.

Laura's POV: Traders must closely monitor how these policy changes impact EU meat production costs and quality standards, as they could significantly alter trade dynamics and pricing strategies.

Ukraine seeks approval for meat exports to China, expanding market opportunities

The Pig Site (04/11/2024)

Ukraine is pursuing approval to export meat products to China, potentially opening a significant new market for Ukrainian producers.

Key Points:

  • Ukraine's move to export meat to China could introduce new competition in the Asian market for established exporters.
  • The potential trade deal highlights Ukraine's efforts to diversify its export markets beyond traditional partners.
  • Approval would likely lead to increased investment in Ukraine's meat production and processing capabilities.

Laura's POV: This development could reshape trade flows in the Asian meat market, presenting both challenges and opportunities for global meat traders operating in the region.

FAO Food Price Index rises, signaling potential shifts in the mear market dynamics

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (04/11/2024)

The FAO Food Price Index has increased, indicating potential changes in global food commodity prices, including meat.

Key Points:

  • Rising food prices may impact consumer demand for different meat products, potentially shifting market preferences.
  • Increased input costs could affect meat production profitability, influencing supply dynamics in the coming months.
  • The index rise may signal broader economic trends that could impact international meat trade and pricing strategies.

Laura's POV: Traders should carefully analyze these price trends to anticipate potential shifts in consumer behavior and adjust their sourcing and pricing strategies accordingly.


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🥩A quick Guide: Pork Carcass Classification

In our world, pork carcass classification isn’t just a formality—it’s essential for quality assurance, price setting, and customer satisfaction. Here’s a breakdown of how the major systems stack up and what they mean for those of us who deal with pork every day.

The EU Classification System

The EU relies on lean meat percentage to classify pork, giving producers and buyers a quick, quantifiable quality check:

Clear and standardized, this scale sets a strong baseline across Europe, letting suppliers and buyers speak the same language about quality.

The USDA Grading System

In the U.S., it’s all about yield, with the USDA focusing on backfat thickness and muscling rather than lean percentage:

This system emphasizes efficiency, helping producers understand the output potential of each carcass.

Korean Grading System

Korea’s system zeroes in on carcass weight and backfat thickness, a straightforward approach that meets the specific demands of their market:

Each grade here translates to precise expectations for specific cuts, making it a practical tool for matching quality to customer needs.

Why It Matters to Us

For anyone in the pork business, these classifications aren’t just guidelines—they’re the backbone of fair trade and quality assurance:

  1. Quality Assurance: A baseline for ensuring product consistency.
  2. Pricing Standards: Supports transparent pricing, helping producers get what their meat is worth.
  3. Consumer Expectations: Guides buyers to the right product for their needs.
  4. Industry Standards: Drives breeding and production adjustments for quality improvement.

These systems are essential to staying competitive, providing a consistent measure of quality, and helping the entire supply chain work more efficiently.

🫶Hanwoo (Korean Beef): My Trip to the Hanwoo Festival in Sejong City

Last Friday, I had the chance to visit with my family the Hanwoo Festival in Sejong, a celebration dedicated to one of Korea’s most treasured meats—Hanwoo beef. This festival goes beyond a simple gathering; it’s a homage to Hanwoo, a breed of Korean cattle known for its exceptional quality, unique flavor, and cultural significance.

From the moment we arrived, we were so excited! The event offered a 40% discount on Hanwoo, letting us taste this expensive beef without breaking the bank. Even better, we could cook it ourselves right there—a unique chance to savor the meat exactly the way we liked it, surrounded by others just as eager to enjoy its flavors.

What Makes Hanwoo Special?

Hanwoo beef isn’t just another cut of meat. Koreans hold it in high regard for many reasons, and after a few bites, it’s easy to see why.

  1. Marbling & Flavor: Hanwoo cattle have a natural genetic potential for intramuscular fat (IMF), creating beautifully marbled cuts. Unlike the sometimes overwhelming richness of Wagyu, Hanwoo’s marbling is balanced—around 40-50% fat in a ribeye, while Wagyu can go up to 70%. This fine marbling lends a rich, umami-filled flavor that’s distinct, particularly because of its higher monounsaturated fats, especially oleic acid. When cooked, the fat melts perfectly, giving the meat a juicy, tender texture.
  2. Unique Production Standards: The marbling in Hanwoo isn’t just by chance. Korean cattle farmers meticulously feed their cattle high-quality, concentrated feed, sometimes even adding beer-enriched supplements to enhance the meat’s texture and juiciness. This focus on the finishing diet ensures Hanwoo consistently meets Korea’s strict quality standards, which are reflected in its impressive marbling and flavor profile.
  3. A Grading System That Matters: Hanwoo beef is graded based on the Beef Marbling Standard (BMS), ranging from 1 (lowest) to 9 (highest). At the top end, grades like 1++ boast a BMS of 8-9, translating to about 24% intramuscular fat. Hanwoo is one of the few beef types in the world with such rigorous grading, allowing for unmatched quality control.
  4. A Cultural Icon: Beyond flavor, Hanwoo is a cultural icon. Koreans consider it a premium delicacy, often reserved for special occasions and holidays. There’s an element of pride when consuming Hanwoo, and the Hanwoo Festival brings this appreciation to life by sharing this national treasure with everyone who attends.

The Festival Experience

The festival wasn’t just about eating—it was about community and tradition. We browsed and sampled Hanwoo delicacies. Watching people of all ages come together over a shared love for Hanwoo was inspiring and a reminder of how deeply this beef is woven into Korean culture.

Of course, the highlight was enjoying the 40% discounted Hanwoo beef. We gathered around sizzling grills, with the aroma of high-grade Hanwoo filling the air, and cooked each piece to perfection. The self-cooking aspect added a personal touch, letting each of us choose our own ideal level of doneness. With every bite, the balance of marbling and flavor was evident, and it’s clear why Hanwoo holds such a high place in Korean hearts and kitchens.

Why I Recommend the Hanwoo Festival

For anyone who loves beef, the Hanwoo Festival in Sejong is an event worth attending. Not only do you get to enjoy top-tier beef at a rare discount, but you also experience firsthand the pride and tradition Koreans have for this meat. This festival isn’t just about the taste—it’s about understanding why Hanwoo is more than just beef. It’s a celebration of Korean culture, quality, and community.

So, if you ever get the chance, make your way to the Hanwoo Festival. Taste the difference, savor the tradition, and enjoy a day dedicated to one of Korea’s finest culinary treasures.

📢 Our WhatsApp Group

In the WhatsApp Group, I usually send some news that I find relevant or Meat Market Updates like the one below or news that gets my attention and is relevant to our industry.

Example:


👀Did you know...?🔍

Cattle Has panoramic Vision!

Cattle have nearly 360-degree vision, allowing them to see almost everything around them!

But here’s the twist—they have poor depth perception and actually can’t see the color red.

So, in bullfighting, those bold red capes?

They’re just for show! It’s the cape’s movement, not the color, that grabs their attention. 🐂💨

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See you in two weeks!

Warm regards, Laura.


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