The Meat Trader’s Journal #39: Global Pork Insights & 2025 Meat Trends 📊


Wednesday May 14, 2025

The 5-minute newsletter that will make you a smarter Meat Industry Insider

The Meat Trader’s Journal #39

Welcome to this year 2024 last Issue! Let's get started!

🧮Market Intel for Traders & Brokers

📊🐷 Global Pork Outlook: December 2024🐷👇

The global pork market in December 2024 presents a mixed picture. While global production is projected to increase in the long term, reaching 131.1 million tons by 2033, the current outlook for 2024-2025 exhibits regional variations and ongoing uncertainties. Key factors influencing the market include production fluctuations, shifting trade patterns, and evolving consumer preferences.

Key Market Drivers:

Production and Consumption:

  • Global pork production for Q4 2024 is forecast at 3.31 billion Kg, slightly lower than previously expected.
  • Consumption is improving, driven by better economic trends and lower energy costs mitigating inflationary pressures.
  • Asia and Latin America are projected to lead in production and consumption growth over the next decade.

Trade:

  • Global pig meat trade is forecast at 10 million tonnes in 2024, a slight increase from 2023.
  • Importing countries like South Korea, Mexico, and the Philippines are expected to see rising import volumes. South Korea has the lowest importing record in 2024, and Philippines will keep rising as long as they keep fighting ASF.
  • China's imports are projected to decline.
  • Major exporting countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Russia are expected to increase exports, while EU exports may face challenges.

Market Dynamics:

  • Producer profitability has stabilized, but expansion remains cautious due to ongoing disease risks and economic uncertainties.
  • Biosecurity remains a critical concern for the industry.
  • Geopolitical factors, such as China's antidumping probe into EU pork imports, are creating trade uncertainties.

Regional Market Analysis

North America: US production is increasing with strong export demand.

Europe: European supply is stabilizing, but prices are declining due to competition and weakened Chinese demand.

Asia: Chinese production is declining amid subdued consumption.

Future Outlook

  • The pork market is expected to grow to $169.49 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 2.2%.
  • Key trends shaping the future include the rise of plant-based alternatives, the growing importance of digital marketing and e-commerce, and increasing focus on environmental and animal welfare considerations.

Challenges and Uncertainties

  • Disease Outbreaks: The ongoing threat of African Swine Fever and other diseases continues to pose a significant risk to global pork production.
  • Economic Slowdown: A potential global economic slowdown could dampen consumer demand for pork and negatively impact market prices.
  • Geopolitical Tensions: Trade disputes and geopolitical uncertainties could disrupt global trade flows and impact market access.
  • Rising Production Costs: Increased feed costs, energy costs, and labor costs continue to pressure producer margins.
  • Climate Change: The impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events and changing environmental conditions, pose increasing challenges to pork production.

Final Remarks

The global pork market faces a complex and evolving landscape. While long-term growth prospects remain positive, navigating near-term challenges such as disease outbreaks, trade uncertainties, and rising production costs will be critical for industry success. Adapting to evolving consumer preferences, embracing sustainable practices, and leveraging technological advancements will be crucial for the future of the global pork industry.

Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information and should not be considered and the only factor for a making decision in trading. It's for orientation and guidance.

📰3 relevant stories in our Industry

Chile and China Strengthen Trade Ties with New Export Protocols

Beijing, Chile Week China | Dec 6, 2024

Chile and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding to expand Chilean exports to China, boosting trade opportunities for fresh fruit and chilled pork products.

Key Points:

Fresh Fruit Exports:

  • New protocols allow fruit to be shipped via ports and airports in third countries, reducing transport time and improving quality for consumers.

Chilled and Frozen Pork:

  • Chile can now export chilled pork and frozen by-products, expanding beyond frozen meat previously allowed.
  • Pork represents 60% of Chile’s meat exports to China, positioning it as a key market since 2019.

Agricultural Export Growth:

  • Forestry and agricultural shipments to China reached USD 5.4 billion in 2023, accounting for 30.5% of Chile's sector exports.
  • Between Jan-Oct 2024, exports totaled USD 4.97 billion, up 12.8% YoY, driven by strong fruit performance (cherries, blueberries, dried plums).

Laura's POV: This agreement strengthens Chile’s competitive edge in China by improving logistics for fresh fruit and expanding chilled pork opportunities.
It reflects China's growing demand for high-quality protein and Chile’s commitment to delivering premium agricultural products. Businesses in both countries stand to benefit from streamlined trade and increased market access.

MHP Targets Spanish Poultry and Pork Processor UVESA Group

Swineweb (/11/2024)

Ukraine is pursuing approval to export meat products to China, potentially opening a significant new market for Ukrainian producers.

Key Points:

Strategic Acquisition:

  • MHP’s offer requires 50.01% shareholder acceptance to move forward.
  • The deal strengthens MHP's role as a key global food industry player, enhancing its reach into Spain.

Growth and Collaboration:

  • MHP plans to bring its advanced production capabilities to Spain, supporting local farmers and businesses.
  • The acquisition will create new jobs and improve the Spanish poultry supply chain.

Global Operations:

  • MHP operates production facilities across Ukraine and Southeast Europe (Perutnina Ptuj).
  • It has additional operations in the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the United Kingdom, exporting poultry to 60+ countries.

Recent Moves:

  • In September, SALIC (Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Co.) acquired a 12.6% stake in MHP, signaling strong investor confidence.

Laura's POV: MHP’s move into Spain positions it as a strong contender in the European poultry and pork market. By combining local collaboration with advanced expertise, MHP strengthens its global supply chain, delivering high-quality, affordable products to meet growing demand worldwide.

US Port Strike Deadline Approaches, Threatening Supply Chains

US East Coast Ports | Dec 10, 2024

Negotiations between US dockworker unions International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and employers of United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) remain at a standstill, with a January 15 2025 deadline looming.

Key Points:

Impasse Over Automation:

  • The ILA opposes expanded use of semi-automated cranes, citing risks to jobs and national security.
  • USMX insists technology is crucial for efficiency and to handle growing cargo volumes.

Strikes Could Disrupt Cargo:

  • Vessels leaving Asia now may face delays, as freight arriving post-January risks joining offshore queues.
  • The October ILA strike caused hundreds of vessels to anchor off US East Coast ports.

Shippers Sound Alarm:

  • The National Chicken Council (NCC) joins manufacturers, farmers, and exporters in urging both sides to stay at the table and reach an agreement.
  • Uncertainty in negotiations is already impacting supply chains, increasing pressure on businesses.

Laura's POV: A prolonged strike could create major disruptions across US East and Gulf Coast ports, impacting both importers and exporters. Businesses reliant on these routes should prepare for delays and potential costs as the January deadline nears


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🥩The 7 Questions that Every Meat Supplier & Traders Should Ask to Their Prospects!

CLIENT ENGAGEMENT ROADMAP

(Read Carefully)

We all need to ask to our prospects as much as we can in order to get a glance of what they need and short the negotiation before the closing. Right?

Many times we ask the wrong and standard questions that doesn’t shed light the differentiation of our product. Yes, I know! most of the times we handle commodities…. Surprisingly, we traders try very hard to decommoditize a commodity.

Phase 1: Understanding Global Needs: Begin with a broad understanding of the importer's market demands preferences and current trends that they are noticing in the market.

Key Questions: What flavors or types of meat are your customers currently excited about? orCould you share insights on consumer preferences in your market regarding meat products?

Phase 2: Evaluating Past Experiences: Learn from previous interactions to refine the supply process.

Key Questions: Was there a particular order (shipment) that worked out really well for you, or one that didn’t meet expectations? Why? or How have our previous shipments aligned with your expectations, and how can we enhance our service? If they are a customer already.

Phase 3: Anticipating Future Trends: Get ahead of market trends and plan for future demands.

Key Question: Are there any emerging trends in your market we should prepare for together? or How do you foresee your meat product needs evolving in the next 12-24 months, and how can we assist in planning and adapting to these changes together?

Phase 4: Addressing Unique Requirements: Understand specific needs that can set both parties up for success.

Key Question: What’s a must-have for you when working with an overseas supplier? or What unique attributes or services do you look for in a meat supplier that you believe would significantly differentiate your offerings to your customers? or Do you have any specific custom requests or requirements for the meat products we supply, such as particular cuts, aging, or packaging?

Phase 5: Streamlining Processes: Find efficiencies in logistics, communication, and transaction processes.

Key Question: Is there a part of the import process we can make easier for you? or Can we explore any potential operational synergies between our businesses, such as logistics optimization to enhance efficiency and reduce time (or costs, x, y or z)?

Phase 6: Leveraging Market Insights: Align offerings with both current and upcoming market demands.

Key Question: What insights can you share about your local market that might help us serve you better? orAre there specific market trends or consumer preferences you are aiming to capitalize on, and how can we support you in this endeavor with our products or market intelligence?

Phase 7: Strategic Growth Planning: Collaborate on long-term strategies for mutual growth.

Key Question: Looking ahead, how do you see our partnership evolving to support your expansion or diversification plans? or How can we align our products to support your strategic goals and explore these new avenues together? or What are your expected long-term goals regarding our partnership?

With this information, you can make an offer that fits your customers better, making it easier to agree on a deal.

You’ll also see where your business stands right now and plan the next steps for both quick wins and long-term success.

🫶2025 is around the corner.
(Ignore these meat trends, and you will fall behind)

Stay ahead. The trends are clear - the winners are already acting on them.

Meat Stays on the Plate
Home cooking dominates, and meat remains the star.
87% of meals still include meat, proving its place in the kitchen isn’t fading anytime soon.

Inflation Shapes Buying Habits
Price-sensitive consumers are smarter buyers.
They’re downsizing packs, choosing bulk options, and stretching every dollar spent on meat.

Health Is Redefining Meat’s Role
Meat isn’t just food – it’s fuel.
Consumers now see it as nutrient-dense, packed with protein, and essential for wellness and longevity.

Sustainability: From Buzzword to Priority
Trust matters.
People want sustainably raised meat, but “green fatigue” means they’re skeptical of empty claims.

Tech Is Changing the Game
The future of meat is here.
3D-printed steaks, cell-cultured options, and advanced automation are no longer futuristic ideas – they’re happening now.

Meat That Fits Your DNA
Personalized nutrition is rising.
Meat tailored to individual health needs will become a unique selling point in 2025.

Global Demand Is Exploding
110 million metric tons.
That’s where global meat consumption is headed by 2025, and production needs to keep up.

Convenience Is King
Consumers don’t have time.
Ready-to-eat, pre-flavored, and convenient meat products will dominate shelves as people demand simplicity.

Flavor Innovation Breaks Borders
Bold, exotic, and diverse meats are on the menu.
Think ethnic meats, new spices, and specialty options – this trend will shape 2025's taste buds.

📢 Our WhatsApp Group

In the WhatsApp Group, I usually send some news that I find relevant or Meat Market Updates like the one below or news that gets my attention and is relevant to our industry.

Example:


👀Did you know...?🔍

Camel Meat is not only a delicacy in some parts of the world but also known for its potential health benefits?

Camel meat is considered a delicacy in some parts of the world, including the Middle East and Africa. Not only is it prized for its taste, but camel meat is also known for being lean, rich in protein, and lower in cholesterol compared to beef and lamb. Additionally, it's packed with vitamins and minerals, making it a healthy alternative for meat consumers.

Camel meat plays a significant role in social and festive occasions in many cultures, often served at weddings, festivals, and other celebrations. Its preparation and consumption are deeply embedded in the culinary traditions of these regions.

Key regions and cultures where camel meat is part of the diet:

  • Middle East: In countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, camel meat is a traditional food. It is often prepared during special occasions and festivals, such as Eid al-Adha, where it might be cooked as a delicacy or served in dishes like stews and kebabs.
  • North Africa: In countries like Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Morocco, camel meat is consumed, especially in areas where other livestock might not easily thrive. It can be found in various traditional dishes, sometimes ground and seasoned or cooked in tagines.
  • East Africa: Countries like Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Djibouti have communities that include camel meat in their diets. It's not uncommon to find it in markets and served in homes, roasted or stewed.
  • Central Asia: In countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, camel meat is eaten, though it is not as common as other meats. It can be used in traditional dishes and is sometimes featured in celebratory meals.
  • Australia: Australia has a significant population of feral camels. In recent years, there has been an interest in utilizing these camels for meat, which is marketed as a lean, healthy alternative to more traditional meats.
  • Pakistan and India: In specific regions, particularly in the desert areas of Rajasthan and in parts of Pakistan, camel meat is part of the local cuisine. It might be used in curries and other local dishes.

There is a demand for camel meat in various countries, driven by cultural preferences, dietary practices, and immigrant populations seeking traditional foods.

Below there are some of the countries known to import camel meat:

  • Middle Eastern Countries: United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait import camel meat to supplement their domestic supply and meet the demand, especially during religious festivals and cultural celebrations.
  • North African Countries: Countries like Egypt and Libya, despite having their own camel populations, import camel meat to fulfill the demand that exceeds local supply.
  • European Countries: In Europe, countries with significant Muslim or African immigrant populations, such as France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands, import camel meat to cater to the culinary preferences of these communities.
  • Asian Countries: Some countries in Asia with Muslim-majority populations, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, import camel meat for consumption, particularly during religious occasions.
  • North America: In the United States and Canada, camel meat is imported in smaller quantities, targeting niche markets, including Middle Eastern and African communities, as well as consumers interested in exotic meats or following a paleo diet.

Let’s note that the taste of camel meat is often described as slightly sweet and savory, with a tender texture similar to beef but with a unique flavor.

Have you ever tried camel meat? If so, in where? Share your experience.

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